Forex rates 2012 13

Kontrol modal terbaru China8217, diperkenalkan pada tanggal 1 Januari, memiliki efek langsung, dengan pembeli China yang lebih sedikit dapat membeli properti di luar negeri. Dari London ke Melbourne, Vancouver ke Sydney, warga China berjuang untuk menutup transaksi properti di beberapa gelembung properti terbesar di dunia. Pakar internasional percaya penurunan permintaan diperkirakan akan dirasakan terburuk di Australia, penerima manfaat terbesar arus keluar modal. Menurut Christopher Todd di perusahaan konsultan Basis Point, Australia menyetujui A24 miliar investasi real estat dari China pada tahun buku yang berakhir pada bulan Juni 2015, angka terbaru yang tersedia, menjadikan Australia sebagai tujuan terbesar bagi pembeli China. Mata uang China8217s telah jatuh ke posisi terendah delapan tahun di belakang rekor pengereman pelarian modal. Cadangan devisanya dipangkas menjadi 3.052 triliun, terendah dalam hampir 6 tahun. Untuk membantu membendung arus, China memperketat kontrol lebih lanjut mengenai valuta asing, sehari sebelum kuota mengatur ulang pada tanggal 1 Januari. Dalam sebuah pernyataan dari Administrasi Luar Negeri China Stock17 (SAFE), ia mengatakan bahwa mereka ingin menghentikan pencucian uang dan pembelian properti ilegal di luar negeri. Sementara regulator telah meninggalkan kuota 50.000 yuan (A9,600) mata uang asing, per orang, per tahun tidak berubah, namun secara signifikan meningkatkan persyaratan pengungkapan. Warga negara China sekarang harus menjanjikan uang yang tidak akan digunakan untuk pembelian properti, sekuritas atau asuransi jiwa di luar negeri. Mereka juga harus memberikan rincian tentang berapa uang yang akan digunakan. Bank sekarang akan melaporkan transaksi luar negeri yang dilakukan oleh seorang individu yang melebihi 10.000 yuan (A2, 000). Bloomberg melaporkan keputusasaannya: Jika terlalu sulit, Im keluar, kata Zheng, 66, seorang pegawai sipil pensiunan di Shanghai yang menolak memberikan nama depannya untuk menghindari pengawasan peraturan yang ketat. Dia mungkin akan meninggalkan pembelian rumah 2,4 juta yuan (348.903) di Melbourne barat, bahkan setelah menembaki deposit 300.000 yuan pada Agustus lalu. Dia akan melakukan pembayaran besar lagi bulan depan. Bagi Zheng, keputusan apakah akan meninggalkan properti Melbourne-nya atau mengambil risiko melanggar peraturan pertukaran valuta asing China cepat mendekati. Dia dijadwalkan untuk mengirim 800.000 yuan lagi ke Australia pada akhir Februari untuk menutupi sisa uang muka. Dengan Tahun Baru Imlek mulai hari ini, tentara pembuat liburan China berada di udara menuju Melbourne dan Sydney karena agen properti lokal mempersiapkan diri untuk minggu 8201. Para agen sudah menyaksikan penurunan permintaan yang substansial. Banyak properti tampilan China dengan grup wisata, namun hanya separuh jumlah bus yang terisi tahun ini. Sutradara Ray White Balwyn Helen Yan mengatakan kepada Domain, lebih sedikit wisatawan China akan berburu properti tahun ini. Yang positif datang dari semua 8211 ini mereka akan memiliki lebih banyak waktu untuk menikmati liburan yang nyata di Australia. Selamat Tahun Baru Imlek. Ditulis oleh admin pada tanggal 17 Januari 2017 8211 7:15 pm Lembaga pemeringkat kredit Fitch telah menempatkan bank-bank di Australia pada jam kredit negatif, dengan alasan peningkatan risiko makro ekonomi yang berasal dari gelembung aset properti. Fitch mengindikasikan risiko utama bagi sistem perbankan adalah eksposur perbankan di pasar properti yang terlalu panas. Yang prihatin secara khusus adalah kenaikan tingkat hutang rumah tangga yang kuat yang relatif terhadap pendapatan rumah tangga 8211 pada saat hutang rumah tangga Australia8217 terhadap pendapatan pembuangan rumah tangga berada pada tingkat yang mengejutkan 187 persen, salah satu tingkat tertinggi di dunia. Hutang rumah tangga tinggi dan meningkat relatif terhadap pendapatan sekali pakai, membuat peminjam sensitif terhadap perubahan pasar tenaga kerja dan tingkat suku bunga, analis Fitch Andrea Jaehne menyatakan. Tekanan dari berbagai bidang telah memaksa bank-bank Australia menaikkan suku bunga dalam beberapa bulan terakhir menyusul tren kenaikan di seluruh dunia. Tetapi dengan tingkat hutang rumah tangga yang signifikan, rumah tangga Australia akan merasakan beban kenaikan suku bunga, lebih daripada negara lain dengan tingkat hutang rumah tangga yang jauh lebih berhati-hati. Fitch juga mengungkapkan kekhawatiran tentang meningkatnya kehilangan pekerjaan. Biaya perumahan yang sangat tinggi telah memaksa upah melonjak tinggi di Australia, menjadikan negara itu ekonomi dengan biaya tinggi dan satu berjuang untuk bersaing di pasar bebas global. Hal ini menyebabkan penutupan industri yang lengkap dan mempercepat percepatan peningkatan jumlah pekerjaan, pekerjaan yang sangat dibutuhkan untuk melayani tingginya tingkat hutang rumah tangga. Pada dasarnya, Australia memiliki kelalaian modal yang signifikan terhadap pasar yang tidak produktif seperti perumahan, dan dengan biaya yang besar untuk sektor ekonomi yang produktif. Lonjakan pinjaman investor 21,4 persen Menambah kekhawatiran makro ekonomi saat ini adalah rilis komitmen pembiayaan perumahan dari Australian Bureau of Statistics. Meskipun ada upaya oleh regulator untuk mengekang pertumbuhan kredit melalui kontrol makro-kehati-hatian, nilai pinjaman kepada investor properti melonjak 21,4 persen sepanjang tahun. Lebih banyak bukti yang menunjukkan bagaimana regulator Australia yang tidak terlatih berada dalam rekayasa pendaratan yang terkendali dan aman. Ditulis oleh admin pada tanggal 17 Desember 2016 8211 7:35 pm Jika ada satu orang yang mengetahui tingkat keparahan gelembung perumahan Australia dan akibatnya untuk sistem perbankan kita, ini adalah CEO Commonwealth Bank David Murray. Murray baru-baru ini memimpin Penyelidikan Sistem Keuangan pemerintah. Dalam sebuah wawancara yang disiarkan di Sky News awal bulan ini, Murray mengatakan bahwa ekonomi Australia sangat rentan karena ada gelembung di pasar perumahan8221 Tapi tidak sembarang gelembung saja. Banyak tanda-tandanya sama dengan Tulip Belanda, ada perilaku orang-orang, penolakan orang terhadap koreksi di pasar itu 8211 semua tanda itu ada di sana.8221 Gelembung Tulip Belanda tahun 1637 adalah salah satu gelembung terbesar dalam sejarah. Jika risiko itu ada, ada yang perlu dilakukan mengenai hal itu dalam pengertian peraturan, dan Reserve Bank dan APRA harus tetap di dalamnya, dia merekomendasikan. Dia tidak sendiri. Lebih banyak yang perlu dilakukan Dalam keadaan yang jarang terjadi, deputi direktur pelaksana IMF Tao Zhang mengunjungi Australia awal bulan ini untuk berbicara dengan regulator mengenai risiko yang ditimbulkan pada perekonomian Australia. Zhang mengatakan kepada Australian Financial Review, kedua belah pihak sepakat bahwa tindakan lebih lanjut diperlukan untuk memperkuat ketahanan terhadap guncangan pasar perumahan8221. Kami berbicara tentang kebijakan kehati-hatian yang perlu diintensifkan, dengan langkah-langkah makro-kehati-hatian yang ditargetkan dan bank didorong untuk menguatkan posisi permodalan mereka ke wilayah yang tidak diragukan lagi kuat, 8221 dia menambahkan. Tidak ada rekomendasi dari penyelidikan Koalisi mengenai keterjangkauan perumahan Namun, dalam rasa malu kepada pemerintah, penyelidikan dua tahun terhadap keterjangkauan perumahan oleh Koalisi telah gagal membuat satu rekomendasi pun. Laporan tersebut, yang dirilis pada hari Jumat telah, dan cukup benar, dicap sebagai buang-buang waktu dan uang oleh para komentator. Tapi membaca antrean, sekarang akan tampak Pemerintah menganggap gelembung perumahan begitu besar dan berat, mereka tidak dapat melakukan perubahan apapun, tanpa memicu koreksi yang menghancurkan dan menciptakan pembantaian politik yang besar terhadap merek partai mereka. Sebaiknya tinggalkan itu ke regulator. Bagaimanapun, APRA tidak pernah melihat keruntuhan Asuransi HIH yang membawa 8211 kegagalan perusahaan terbesar dalam sejarah Australia8217. Ditulis oleh admin pada 27 November 2016 8211 8:56 pm Investor properti dan budak utang Australia8217 terguncang pada hari Jumat, ketika Westpac bergabung dengan jajaran bank-bank yang lebih kecil, menaikkan suku bunga KPR secara signifikan dari siklus, dengan pinjaman jangka tetap. Pinjaman investasi tetap Westpac8217s lima tahun akan melonjak 60 basis poin atau 2,4 kali standar Reserve Bank meningkat menjadi 4,79 persen pada hari senin. Dua dan tiga tahun pinjaman investasi akan naik 30 basis poin, sementara dua dan tiga tahun pemilik hipotek penghuni akan meningkat 24 basis poin. Ini mengikuti kenaikan yang dilakukan oleh RAM Westpac8217s dan kenaikan 60 basis poin dari Bank of Sydney. Selama dua minggu terakhir, sepuluh bank kecil lainnya mengalami kenaikan suku bunga. Investor terlalu naif dan puas melihat itu datang, tapi seharusnya begitu. Bank menghadapi tekanan pada sejumlah bidang. Bobot Resiko IRB Seperti telah kami laporkan selama bertahun-tahun, bank-bank besar Australia atau bank berbasis IRB (internal ratings-based) 8211 Westpac, Commonwealth, ANZ, NAB dan Macquarie, telah menyalahgunakan ukuran dan status mereka. Betapapun konyolnya, regulator mengira bank-bank ini tahu apa yang mereka lakukan, jadi mereka diberi wewenang untuk menilai sendiri buku hipotek mereka sendiri. Seperti yang bisa Anda tebak, dalam upaya meningkatkan profitabilitas karena terhambatnya stabilitas keuangan, bank-bank IRB menilai risiko pada portofolio hipotek mereka sangat berbahaya sehingga tidak perlu menahan kerugian yang terlalu mahal untuk menyerap modal. Bagaimanapun, pembayar pajak akan siap jika mereka perlu diselamatkan. Uji stres yang dilakukan oleh regulator perbankan Australia pada tahun 2014 menemukan bahwa kelima bank IRB itu bangkrut, jika mereka tidak dapat mengakses modal lebih lanjut, setelah terjadi keruntuhan perumahan dan komoditas moderat. Sesuatu harus dilakukan. Efektif pada 1 Juli 2016, APRA telah menaikkan rata-rata bobot risiko bagi bank IRB menjadi minimal 25 persen. Ini akan meminta bank-bank IRB untuk menahan modal penyerapan ekstra untuk membantu solvabilitas dalam krisis perbankan. Bank memiliki dua pilihan, mengurangi tingkat profitabilitas, atau memukul pemegang hipotek. Yang belakangan lebih disukai, karena pada tahap tertentu bank mungkin harus menutup 8211 kepada pemegang saham untuk menopang neraca ketika tingkat suku bunga secara material meningkat. Semua bank kami yang lain, memiliki tingkat risiko minimal 35 persen, sehingga bank-bank besar masih mendapat keuntungan yang tidak adil. Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR) Sebagai bagian dari kesepakatan International Basel III yang dirancang untuk membuat bank lebih tangguh, bank harus mulai mengandalkan lebih banyak dana dalam negeri untuk pendanaan, daripada pasar grosir yang berisiko di luar negeri. Guncangan global (brexit, Italia, Eropa, China dll) dapat menyebabkan masalah likuiditas karena bergulirnya hutang jangka pendek. Seiring dengan meningkatnya hutang rumah tangga Australia82, bank-bank Australia lebih mengandalkan pasar utang grosir jangka pendek untuk mendapatkan dana murah yang sangat dibutuhkan untuk memenuhi keinginan Australia akan hutang abadi. Australia memutuskan untuk menurunkan peringkat kredit AAA Seperti yang kami laporkan pada bulan Juli, Australia berada dalam peringkat prospek kredit negatif dengan lembaga pemeringkat Standard and Poor. S038P, pada saat itu, mengatakan Ada satu dari tiga kemungkinan bahwa kita dapat menurunkan peringkat dalam dua tahun ke depan jika kita percaya bahwa parlemen tidak mungkin untuk mengatur ukuran tabungan atau pendapatan yang cukup untuk defisit anggaran sektor pemerintah secara umum untuk mempersempit Secara material dan berada dalam posisi seimbang pada awal 2020. 8221 Karena peringatan tersebut, Perdana Menteri Malcolm Turnbull dan Bendahara Scott Morrison memiliki sedikit banyak duduk di tangan mereka dalam hal perbaikan anggaran. Baru minggu ini, mantan anggota dewan RBA John Edwards menyarankan agar mengurangi cadangan bantuan negatif untuk memastikan peringkat kredit AAA kami, namun Perdana Menteri telah mengesampingkan perubahan tersebut untuk mencegah pukulan balik dari backbenches Liberal yang sangat bergantung pada kereta gravitasi negatif. Masalah yang dihadapi Perdana Menteri yang lembut, apakah dia tidak dapat menemukan luka yang tidak akan mempengaruhi seseorang. Hari ini, bahkan mantan Perdana Menteri koalisi, Tony Abbott telah meminta Turnbull untuk mengeraskan Australia8217s karena bank-bank yang diperluas dan berisiko terlihat hanya seaman bailout pemerintah, dan karenanya tidak dapat memiliki peringkat kredit yang melebihi pemerintah. Hilangnya peringkat kredit pemerintah diperkirakan akan membuat dana grosir luar negeri lebih mahal. Efek Trump Masa depan dengan Donald Trump, pemimpin dunia bebas, adalah yang paling sulit diprediksi, namun telah menarik sebagian besar kesalahan karena kenaikan suku bunga. Kebijakan truf sebagian besar diperkirakan akan inflasi dengan pertumbuhan pro, infrastruktur besar dibangun di sayap. Kemenangannya yang menang awal bulan ini telah menyebabkan kekacauan di pasar utang dunia, namun ada beberapa bukti yang menunjukkan bahwa obligasi tersebut tidak disukai sejak Agustus. Apakah pasar obligasi sell-off dimulai pada bulan Agustus, atau November dengan pemilihan Trump, imbal hasil obligasi menuju satu arah, naik, dan dianggap sebagai proxy yang baik untuk pergerakan suku bunga di masa depan. Janet Yellen, kursi Federal Reserve Amerika Serikat, diperkirakan akan bergerak pada suku bunga Amerika pada bulan Desember. Jika kita panik regulator perbankan Australia82 telah berulang kali mempertahankan bank harus memiliki tingkat servis sebesar 7 persen untuk saat suku bunga mau tidak mau naik. Jika bank tidak memenuhi persyaratan ini, harus ada beberapa ruang lingkup untuk kenaikan suku bunga selama 12 sampai 24 bulan ke depan. Tapi kemudian, siapa yang yakin bank memilah pemohon hipotek dengan 7 persen lantai Tentu bukan aku. Ditulis oleh admin pada tanggal 24 Oktober 2016 8211 9:15 pm Australia menghadapi kelebihan pasokan apartemen yang belum pernah terjadi sebelumnya karena diperkirakan 230.000 apartemen baru membanjiri pasar Melbourne, Sydney dan Brisbane selama 24 bulan ke depan. Lonjakan gedung apartemen baru dalam upaya untuk memenuhi permintaan tak terpuaskan dari investor properti asing China. Berdasarkan undang-undang Australia yang dirancang untuk meningkatkan persediaan perumahan, investor asing hanya dapat membeli tempat tinggal baru. Tapi seperti yang kami laporkan pada bulan Mei (8220 Bank memperketat sekrup pada pembeli asing 8220) bank-bank tersebut menemukan jejak dari apa yang ternyata merupakan penipuan sistemik. Bank ANZ meminta anak perusahaannya di Asia untuk melakukan verifikasi dan memeriksa silang perusahaan lepas pantai yang tidak jelas yang dikutip sebagai sumber pendapatan luar negeri untuk layanan pinjaman properti ini. Sebagian besar perusahaan lepas pantai tidak ada. Pada akhir April, ANZ terpaksa membatalkan persetujuan 90 pinjaman kepada investor asing. Tidak lama kemudian, kebenarannya keluar dengan pengungkapan bahwa bank ANZ dan Westpac telah menyetujui ratusan pinjaman yang didukung oleh dokumentasi pendapatan asing yang tidak benar. Semua bank segera mulai menguatkan persyaratan kelayakan dan kelayakan servis. Beberapa bahkan memilih untuk membekukan penulisan semua pinjaman baru kepada orang asing, dengan alasan risikonya terlalu besar. Banyak orang asing telah meletakkan simpanan di apartemen mereka namun tidak lagi memenuhi syarat untuk pinjaman dari bank-bank besar Australia, pinjaman penting untuk menyelesaikan penyelesaian. Untuk membantu mengurangi bencana, portal real estat China, aofun. au telah membuat Nominee Sale Platform dalam upaya untuk menggeser beberapa dari ribuan apartemen di mana pembeli tidak dapat menyelesaikan penyelesaiannya. Investor properti asing terkunci dari penjualan kembali apartemen Tapi dalam ironis, investor properti asing telah terkunci di luar pasar penjualan kembali dan tidak dapat merogoh tawaran. Menurut seorang juru bicara dari Kantor Perpajakan Australia, Di bawah subbagian 15 (4) dan (5) dari Foreign Acquisitions and Takeovers Act 1975, sebuah hunian dianggap telah terjual saat sebuah kesepakatan menjadi mengikat, 8221 8220Jika harta tersebut diturunkan setelah Tanggal dimana kontrak menjadi mengikat, dan sebelum penyelesaian, maka ini dianggap sebagai tempat tinggal yang mapan.8221 Karena investor asing tidak dapat membeli apa yang sekarang dianggap sebagai tempat tinggal yang mapan, mereka tidak dapat membantu menyerap beberapa kelebihan pasokan yang membebani. Agen target pembeli rumah pertama Tidak dikalahkan, agen penjualan apartemen kini menargetkan pembeli rumah pertama. Aofun bahkan mengklaim bahwa orang-orang PEMBELAJAR PERTAMA RUMAH TANGGA dapat mengambil tawar-menawar dengan uang yang telah dibayar.8221 Tapi bisakah mereka menyerap 230.000 apartemen dalam 24 bulan Awal bulan ini, Biro Statistik Australia (ABS) merevisi turun partisipasi pembeli rumah pertama di pasar yang miring Terhadap investor spekulatif. Angka asli menunjukkan rendahnya hanya 14,1 persen pembeli pada Juli 2016 adalah pembeli rumah pertama, namun angka sebenarnya jauh lebih buruk. Setelah revisi, ABS sekarang percaya hanya 13,2 persen peserta di pasar pada bulan Juli adalah pembeli rumah pertama. Angka terus menurun selama empat tahun. Biaya perumahan yang tinggi telah mengurangi pendapatan disposable, mematikan bisnis dan menyebabkan pengangguran lebih tinggi dan kasualnya tenaga kerja. Ditambah dengan harga rumah yang harus dilewati, pembeli rumah pertama, orang yang memiliki pekerjaan, berjuang untuk masuk ke pasar perumahan 8211 terlepas dari apakah makanan pokok mereka meliputi alpukat yang hancur dengan feta yang hancur pada roti panggang lima butir. Dengan masalah pembuatan bir di pasar apartemen, bank-bank tersebut terus memberantas pinjaman. Pada hari Sabtu, National Australia Bank (NAB) memperluas daftar hitam pinjaman rahasia untuk menjangkau lebih dari 600 kota dan pinggiran kota. Pembeli sekarang memerlukan deposit minimum 30 persen untuk membeli properti di pinggiran kota ini yang terkena penurunan pertambangan atau kelebihan pasokan apartemen. Saat ini, Bendigo dan bank Adelaide merosot di lokasi berisiko tinggi meningkatkan deposit minimum menjadi 40 persen. Jika pembeli rumah pertama berjuang untuk menghemat setoran dua puluh persen, mereka akan menghadapi kesulitan untuk membekuk deposit tiga puluh sampai empat puluh persen untuk apartemen berisiko tinggi. Tapi itu juga merupakan kesalahan untuk menganggap semua Generasi Y dan X berusaha memasuki gelembung perumahan Australia8217 dan menjadi budak hutang seumur hidup. Jadi pertanyaannya berdiri, siapa yang akan membeli semua apartemen default Ditulis oleh admin pada 20 Oktober 2016 8211 6:44 pm gelembung perumahan yang belum pernah terjadi sebelumnya di Inggris telah memaksa sejumlah besar pemohon hipotek untuk memalsukan aplikasi pinjaman, hanya untuk mendapatkan pijakan di Pernah menantang pasar Survei UBS baru-baru ini menemukan adanya kecurangan hipotek di Australia yang marak, dengan 28 persen pemohon mengaku memalsukan dokumen pinjaman. Banyak yang memiliki pendapatan rumah tangga terlalu tinggi, nilai aset terlalu tinggi atau hutang atau biaya hidup yang rendah. Peminjam yang hampir tidak dapat masuk ke pasar adalah kelompok yang paling mungkin untuk meregangkan kebenaran, dengan pelaporan UBS, 8220 ada korelasi antara peminjam yang salah mengartikan permohonan mereka dan: mereka yang pengeluarannya secara umum sama dengan pendapatan mereka karena mereka berada dalam tekanan keuangan atau Telah melewatkan pembayaran hutang.8221 AMP8217s Laporan Keuangan Kesehatan. Dirilis hari ini, menemukan 24 persen pekerja di Australia sekarang tergolong 8220 secara finansial tertekan.8221 UBS mengindikasikan bahwa survei tersebut cenderung mengecilkan jumlah hipotek yang dipalsukan dan dugaan penipuan hipotek adalah 8220systemic8221 di Australia, dan terutama lazim di kalangan pialang. Wayne Byres, Ketua Regulator Perbankan Australia, APRA, telah memberi tahu Komite Legislasi Ekonomi Senat, badan pengawas telah menginstruksikan bank-bank terbesar di Australia untuk memiliki auditor eksternal mereka melakukan peninjauan atas prosedur pengendalian kecurangan mereka. Byres mengatakan kepada panitia, Kami telah mengatakan kepada institusi yang lebih besar bahwa dengan baik meminta mereka untuk meminta auditor eksternal mereka melakukan tinjauan terhadap mekanisme kontrol penggelapan yang sebenarnya untuk memastikan bahwa ada mekanisme yang ada dan sedang bekerja, Dengan kecurangan sistemik semacam itu, ada ketakutan Kembalinya pinjaman yang lebih hati-hati bisa membuat pasar perumahan di Australia menjadi berlebih ke dalam spiral ke bawah. Awal bulan ini, Roy Morgan Research menemukan 311.000 pemegang hipotek di Australia memiliki sedikit atau bahkan tidak memiliki ekuitas di rumah mereka. Pendinginan pasar akan membuat ratusan ribu pemegang hipotek menjadi ekuitas negatif. Ditulis oleh admin pada 19 Oktober 2016 8211 6:06 Bukan hanya mereka yang berjuang untuk masuk ke pasar properti yang perlu mengurangi alpukat yang hancur dengan feta yang hancur pada roti panggang lima butir. Suku bunga mungkin berada pada rekor terendah, namun tingkat kenakalan telah mencapai rekor tertinggi di Australia Barat, Tasmania dan Northern Territory. Di Australia Selatan, tingkat kenakalan hanya 0,1 persen dari catatan. Babi perumahan di Australia Barat dan deflasi upah telah memberikan kontribusi terhadap tunggakan hipotek yang mencapai 2,33 persen, melonjak 0,69 persen pada tahun lalu. Secara nasional, kenakalan telah meningkat di setiap negara bagian dan teritori. Jumlah hipotek nakal di Australia berada pada posisi tertinggi tiga tahun dan kemungkinan akan meningkat, menurut Moodys Investors Service. Pemegang hipotek lebih dari 30 hari terlambat mendapatkan hipotek mereka saat ini mencapai 1,5 persen, dan menyenggol rekor 1,59 persen yang tercatat pada bulan April 2013. Australia memiliki tingkat hutang rumah tangga tertinggi di dunia. Ditulis oleh admin pada tanggal 15 September 2016 8211 7:59 PM Perdana Menteri Malcolm Turnbull telah meminta warga Australia untuk berhati-hati terhadap hutang rumah tangga yang berlebih, dengan mengatakan bahwa tingkat suku bunga tidak akan selalu rendah. Bukan bagi saya untuk memberikan ceramah tentang keuangan rumah tangga tapi saya pikir kebanyakan orang Australia sangat waspada terhadap fakta bahwa sementara tingkat suku bunga rendah, mereka selalu rendah dan Anda harus berhati-hati dalam hal peminjaman Anda, katanya kepada orang Australia Barat Koran. Ini sampai ke Reserve Bank untuk menjaga stabilitas keuangan, dan mereka memiliki sejumlah tuas, tingkat suku bunga menjadi yang paling jelas, untuk mengatasi pinjaman yang berlebihan jika itu istilah yang tepat. Pada kuartal Maret, utang rumah tangga sebagai persentase pendapatan rumah tangga terus meningkat menjadi 187 persen di belakang suku bunga darurat yang rendah. Orang Australia membawa tingkat hutang rumah tangga tertinggi siapa pun di dunia. Hal ini membebani dan mencatat tingkat hutang rumah tangga yang tinggi telah menyebabkan Moodys Investors Service menerbitkan sebuah peringatan baru-baru ini bahwa bank-bank Australia akan berada di wilayah yang belum dipetakan ketika rumah tangga di negara-negara tersebut harus menghadapi kemerosotan ekonomi. Ketahanan neraca rumah tangga dan, akibatnya, portofolio bank, hingga kemunduran ekonomi yang serius belum diuji pada tingkat hutang sektor swasta ini, Ilya Serov, wakil presiden senior Lembaga Keuangan Moodys mengatakan. Investor asing di real estat Australia perlu melakukan due diligence sendiri setelah diungkap salah satu negara yang memimpin indeks harga rumah telah melebih-lebihkan pertumbuhan. Tapi bukan satu-satunya masalah yang mereka hadapi. Bank sentral Australia telah dipaksa untuk turun menggunakan indeks harga rumah dari CoreLogic setelah bank tersebut mengatakan bahwa hal tersebut mencerminkan pertumbuhan harga rumah sebesar 8.222 dolar. Di negara yang terobsesi dengan real estat, semua orang menggunakan statistik CoreLogic karena selalu menggambarkan pertumbuhan yang kuat dan terus-menerus terlepas dari kinerja pasar yang sebenarnya. Pembaruan bulanan terakhir, yang dipublikasikan pada tanggal 1 Agustus menemukan tempat tinggal Adelaide melonjak 1,4 persen di bulan Juli. Sydney naik 1,3 persen dan Melbourne 1,1 persen. Corelogic membual, 8220Capital city hunian mencapai rekor tertinggi di bulan Juli8221 Pada tanggal 31 Juli menurut Corelogic, harga tempat tinggal rata-rata di Sydney8217 adalah 775.000 turun dari 780.000 bulan sebelumnya (ya turun), Melbourne turun 585.000 dari 587.500 bulan sebelumnya ( Ya turun) dan Adelaide 417.500 turun dari 420.000 (tidak, tidak ada kesalahan 8211 turun). Ini sendiri tidak menjadi perhatian. Indeks Nilai Rumah Corelogic adalah indeks Hedonic yang berarti data 8220massaged8221 untuk lebih melacak atribut properti 8211 yaitu jumlah kamar tidur dan kamar mandi. Tapi itu sudah menjadi kejadian biasa tahun ini. Bulan demi bulan, rata-rata turun, indeks naik. Sydney memulai tahun ini dengan median 800.000 harga hunian dan ditutup bulan lalu di 775.000 menurut Corelogic. Meskipun musim gugur, Sydney telah mencatat pertumbuhan bulanan yang mengesankan, 0,5 persen (Jan), 0,5 persen (Feb), 1,0 persen (Mar), 2,4 persen (Apr), 3,1 persen (Mei), 1,2 persen ( Jun), 1,3 persen (Jul). Hal ini dimengerti Corelogic membuat perubahan metropolitan 82221 pada bulan April dan lupa memberi saran kepada pelanggan tentang perubahan tersebut, termasuk Reserve Bank of Australia. Jika Anda berada di Sydney, Melbourne atau Brisbane akhir-akhir ini, tidak diragukan lagi Anda akan menyaksikan pemandangan derek yang tak ada habisnya. Australia berada dalam genggaman ledakan gedung apartemen yang belum pernah terjadi sebelumnya. Pada kuartal Maret, menurut ABS, sektor swasta membangun 150.706 8220other8221 tempat tinggal, biasanya unit dan apartemen. Ini tiga kira-kira 50.000 hanya 6 tahun yang lalu. Sebagian besar tempat tinggal ini tidak beroperasi dan dibangun untuk orang asing. Investor meletakkan, biasanya, deposit 10 persen dan diminta untuk membayar sisanya saat apartemen selesai. Ini bisa melibatkan mendapatkan pinjaman dengan bank saat waktunya tiba. Semua transaksi telah dibekukan8221 Seperti yang telah kami laporkan pada bulan Mei (Bank memperketat sekrup pada pembeli asing), Australia 4 tahun lalu mulai mencabut dan mengurangi pinjaman kepada investor asing setelah mendeteksi kecurangan yang meluas. Menurut broker hipotek luar negeri, banyak yang sekarang berjuang untuk menyelesaikan pembelian mereka. Mark Yin, agen Home Tree Group yang berbasis di Shanghai mengatakan kepada AFR, 8220Semua kesepakatan telah dibekukan, 8221 Menurut laporan tersebut, hampir 100 persen kliennya tidak dapat memperoleh keuangan dari bank-bank Australia. Sebagian besar membeli apartemen di CBD Melbourne. Sekarang saya berhenti berurusan dengan properti Australia, 8221 katanya. Lanny Xu, CEO Iron Fish China mengatakan sekitar 20 persen kliennya mencoba menjual apartemen setelah gagal mendapatkan pinjaman. Bagi pembeli lokal, kelebihan pasokan apartemen telah melihat harga turun. Bank menilai apartemen di pemukiman dan banyak yang datang pendek. Di Melbourne Docklands, CBD dan Southbank di Melbourne, apartemen menjual diskon hingga 24 persen untuk harga off-the-plan. Menurut sebuah artikel baru-baru ini di AFR, dari rencana penjualan apartemen di kota dalam Brisbane8217s turun 44 persen pada kuartal terakhir. (Penjualan apartemen Brisbane runtuh, permukiman sekarang menjadi fokus utama pengembang) Ditulis oleh admin pada 7 Juli 2016 8211 8:57 pm Tahun pengeluaran di luar kemampuan kita telah berhasil menyusul Australia hari ini, dengan lembaga pemeringkat Standard and Poor8217s menurunkan prospek peringkat kredit Australia8217s Ke negatif Sementara Australia mempertahankan peringkat kredit AAA yang berharga untuk saat ini, ini adalah peringatan kuat bahwa Australia dapat kehilangan peringkat kredit yang didambakannya jika posisi anggaran kami gagal membaik. Dalam sebuah pernyataan, Standard and Poor8217 mengatakan, 8220 Ada satu dari tiga kemungkinan bahwa kita dapat menurunkan peringkat dalam dua tahun ke depan jika kita percaya bahwa parlemen tidak mungkin untuk mengatur ukuran tabungan atau pendapatan yang cukup untuk defisit anggaran sektor pemerintah secara umum. Untuk mempersempit secara material dan berada dalam posisi seimbang pada awal 2020.8221 Salah satu perbaikan tersebut bisa menjadi grandfathering dari gearing negatif dan pengurangan keuntungan modal diskon dari 50 persen menjadi 25 persen, diperkirakan akan menghemat pembayar pajak lebih dari 6 miliar setahun. Standard and Poor8217s kemudian hari ini menempatkan NSW, Victoria dan ACT pada pandangan negatif yang menunjukkan bahwa entitas negara tidak dapat memperoleh peringkat yang lebih tinggi daripada Persemakmuran Australia.8221 Selanjutnya, untuk alasan yang sama, empat bank besar kami 8211 ANZ, CBA, WBC dan NAB adalah Ditempatkan pada pandangan negatif. S038P mengatakan, 8220 Pandangan negatif pada bank-bank ini mencerminkan pandangan kami bahwa peringkat tersebut mendapat keuntungan dari dukungan pemerintah dan kami berharap dapat menurunkan peringkat entitas ini jika kami menurunkan peringkat kredit sovereign currency jangka panjang di Australia8221 S038P menggambarkan hutang pemerintah rendah, namun Menunjukkan kekhawatiran terbesarnya adalah hutang luar negeri dan rumah tangga Australia 2.8171. Bagian 8220A dari hutang luar negeri Australia8217 juga telah mendanai lonjakan pinjaman rumah tangga yang tidak produktif untuk perumahan selama tahun 1990an dan 2000.8221 Australia memiliki tingkat hutang rumah tangga tertinggi sebagai persentase PDB di dunia. Sekitar 30 persen pendanaan bank berasal dari pasar grosir eksternal, yang membuat Australia mengalami guncangan eksternal. Irlandia berada dalam situasi yang sama dengan GFC dengan hutang pemerintah yang rendah dan tingginya hutang rumah tangga. Ketika orang-orang Irlandia tidak dapat lagi melayani hutang mereka yang meningkat, sistem perbankan macet, pemerintah terpaksa menyelamatkan mereka, sehingga secara efektif mengalihkan hutang rumah tangga ke neraca pemerintah. Ditulis oleh admin pada tanggal 3 Juli 2016 8211 9:00 pm Perjalanan ke pemungutan suara pada hari Sabtu telah menghasilkan suara menggigit kuku, terlalu dekat dengan hasil panggilan. Pada penghitungan penghitungan jam 2 pagi hari Minggu, ALP memiliki 67 kursi, LNP 8211 65 dan partai-partai kecil telah memilih lima. 13 kursi tetap ragu dengan perhitungan untuk dilanjutkan pada hari Selasa. Hasilnya menunjukkan Australia bisa menuju parlemen yang menggantung dan tiga tahun kebuntuan politik untuk reformasi ekonomi dan upaya untuk mengendalikan pengeluaran. Kebuntuan semacam itu bisa mengeja akhir peringkat kredit AAA yang didambakan Australia8217 dengan spekulasi Australia dapat dinilai negatif selama beberapa minggu. Akibatnya, hilangnya peringkat kredit triple AAA tidak hanya akan membuat hutang pemerintah lebih mahal, namun akan menghasilkan serangkaian penurunan peringkat untuk bank dan perusahaan Australia dan berpotensi mengakibatkan kenaikan suku bunga KPR karena bank lebih mengandalkan dana grosir. Downgrade juga akan menjadi pukulan untuk percaya diri. Lonjakan utang Australia8217 menjadi 254 persen dari PDB Kehilangan peringkat kredit AAA kami akhirnya akan terjadi, terlepas dari hasil pemilihan. Ada spekulasi yang menjulang tentang kerugian selama berbulan-bulan. Sebuah rilis Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Kamis lalu menghitung rekor lain untuk tingkat hutang Australia. Total hutang yang disita oleh rumah tangga, sektor publik dan bisnis (tapi tidak termasuk perusahaan pembiayaan) mencapai 254 persen dari PDB untuk kuartal pertama sampai Maret. Tempat tinggal rumah tangga yang tak terpuaskan untuk sepotong gelembung perumahan Australia, dan dengan biaya apapun, memberikan kontribusi terbesar terhadap tingkat hutang total pada 125 persen dari PDB. Rumah tangga Australia tetap berhutang banyak di dunia sebagai persentase dari PDB. Resiko yang signifikan adalah ketergantungan bank besar kita pada dana grosir luar negeri untuk mendukung pasar hipotek perumahan. Seiring dunia semakin mempertanyakan keajaiban Australia dan menghitung ulang risiko, spread dari dana grosir ini akan meningkat. Menurut Courier Mail, analis, John Steiner dari Hedgeye Risk Management yang berbasis di Amerika Serikat telah merekomendasikan investor di Australia kecil empat bank besar. Dia yakin kelebihan pasokan perumahan dan penurunan permintaan telah memberi sinyal pada pasar perumahan Australia8217 dalam sebuah gelembung dan akan meledak. Hutang bisnis sekarang berada pada 84 persen dari PDB, sementara utang Pemerintah mengimbangi 47 persen dari PDB. Awal tahun ini ketika total utang hanya 243 persen dari PDB, Morgan Stanley menghitung setiap dolar dari pertumbuhan PDB ekstra, Australia mengumpulkan sebuah nilai ekstra 9 dari hutang. Pada saat itu, Daniel Blake, ekonom Morgan Stanley yang berbasis di Sydney mengatakan bahwa Australia perlu segera menemukan sumber pertumbuhan lain yang kurang intensif terhadap hutang daripada pasar properti yang sangat leverage. 8220We8217re not getting that much growth for the money we8217re borrowing,8221 Written by admin on June 28, 2016 8211 8:06 pm Negative gearing was intended to create more affordable housing, but as house prices surge, causing rental yields to tumble, more evidence is mounting to the contrary. Research by UNSW8217s City Futures Research Centre has found a higher concentration of vacant homes in the inner cities. When it investigated further, it found a strong correlation between empty homes and poor rental yields. Inner city dwellings typically attract higher prices but return lower yields due to a ceiling on incomes. They have, in the past, exhibited better capital growth prospects. Apartments with a rental yield of approximately two percent were 2.5 times more likely to be intentionally left empty compared with apartments yielding 6 per cent. Since 1997, price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios have close to doubled. As home prices continued to outpace rental growth, rental yields fell to the point where for many investors it is no longer worth offering the home for rent. There is less hassle with tenants, limited maintenance requests and no wear and tear on the property. Rather, the focus is now firmly on capital growth and as a result, some 90,000 properties sit idle in Sydney, a trend that is set to continue. In Melbourne, 83,000 properties, representing 4.8 per cent of the market is considered empty based on water meter readings. UNSW8217s Professor Bill Randolph and Dr Laurence Troy state, 8220Leaving housing empty is both profitable and subsidised by government,8221 8220This is taxation lunacy and a national scandal.8221 Tax distortions such as negative gearing and the fifty per cent capital gains discount is believed to be behind this ill-considered trend. Leaving property empty allows investors greater negative gearing offsets while capital gains is treated more favorably with a fifty per cent tax discount. High housing costs are making Australia noncompetitive in global markets and channeling vital capital from what was productive sectors of the Australian economy into non-productive housing. If we are fair dinkum about jobs and growth, structural changes are urgently needed around taxation policy driving these distortions. Pain will be felt in the short term, but the long term benefits will exceedingly outweigh the negatives should politicians have the vision to see past one term. Flawed housing policy has resulted in Australia having some of the highest levels of household debt in the world, relative to both GDP and household disposable incomes. Such, precarious and unsustainable levels greatly exposes Australia to external economic shocks such as the Brexit. Australian banks rely heavily on foreign wholesale debt markets to fund many residential property loans and a global liquidity crisis could cause quite a road bump. Tax distortions are also establishing the scene for one day, when house prices are unable to achieve anymore growth and the yields simply won8217t stack up. Written by admin on June 25, 2016 8211 9:39 pm Western Australia8217s highest residential vacancy rate in decades has turned the state into a hot spot heaven for squatters. Squatters are finding home in some of the tens of thousand vacant properties sitting idle in WA. Some are changing the locks and threatening landlords. Others are conducting their own renovations and painting walls. Sharon Fox-Slater, executive general manager of EBM RentCover, one of Australia8217s largest providers of landlord insurance said that she use to see a squatting related claim every few years, but they are now common place in Western Australia. 8220The downturn, high vacancy rate and number of job losses is taking its toll. she said. Written by admin on June 24, 2016 8211 9:38 pm Australia8217s banking regulator has expressed perpetual concern8221 about the dominance of Australia8217s big four banks in the lending market. Charles Littrell, Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) supervision general manager told a Centre for International Finance and Regulation showcase event on Thursday, 8220In 1990, the four major banks had 40 per cent of the banking market now theyve got 80 per cent8221 Theyre all in the same business model, theyre all hugely exposed to each other 8230 and we dont quite know what would happen if that business model gets whacked by external stress all at once.8221 The warning is timely given Britain8217s decision to exit the EU today, shaking global finance markets. Also of concern by the regulator is the big four8217s exposure to residential housing loans. 8220It is a significant issue of concern to us that close to two-thirds of balance sheets are exposed to propertymainly housing loans,8221 Australia has the highest level of household debt in the world. It is expected the regulator will impose greater capital requirements in the next wave of reforms due by the end of the year. In 2012, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) highlighted identical concerns about the concentration and interconnectedness of Australias big four banks. (8216 Too big to fail 8216). Under a stress test scenario conducted by APRA in 2014, the big four banks would have been insolvent if they were unable to access further capital, highlighting the need to bolster the banks with further capital. (8216 Have the Big 4 just flunked APRAs stress test 8216) Written by admin on June 19, 2016 8211 6:43 pm A Treasury report released under Freedom of Information has found over half of all negative gearing tax benefits aid our top twenty percent of income earners and the top ten percent of income earners gain 75 percent of the capital gains tax concessions. Despite claims by the coalition that Mums 038 Dads and average wage earners were the main beneficiary, the report states 8220Negative gearing benefits high-income families,8221 and the capital gains discount 8220overwhelmingly benefits high-income families.8221 The lowest twenty percent of income earners only obtain 5 per cent of all benefits under the generous negative gearing scheme, costing the budget billions of dollars each year. It is understood the report is written by ANU8217s associate professor, Ben Phillips for Treasury, and the government had known about the contents of the report for three months, while fiercely maintaining it8217s claim that negative gearing benefits average wage earners. The report, which the coalition tried to keep secret, found Labor8217s plan to quarantine negative gearing to new properties and reduce the capital gains discount from 50 per cent to 25 per cent would save the Australian taxpayer approximately 6 billion a year. Written by admin on June 8, 2016 8211 9:27 pm Moody8217s Investors Service has warned today, the recent resurgence in house price growth following last month8217s rate cut would been seen as a credit negative for Australian banks. The surge, 8220against a back drop of an already-high level of household indebtedness8221 would increase the sensitivity of Australian banks to a housing downturn. The report stated, And although we expect such an adjustment to be gradual, the likelihood of an outright downward correction in prices is rising. Written by admin on June 5, 2016 8211 8:16 pm 8220Domestically, the unwinding of housing-market tensions to date may presage dramatic and destabilising developments, rather than herald a soft landing.8221 This is the latest warning from the OECD Economic Outlook and comes after the Reserve Bank of Australia stoked the hot coals last month, slashing the official cash rate by 25 basis points and sending Sydney8217s property prices surging 3.1 per cent in the month of May. It highlights the enormous challenge the Reserve Bank faces in trying to support an ailing economy while engineering a soft landing in Australia8217s unprecedented housing bubble. No central bank has ever pulled off such a feat 8211 anywhere in the world. Some economists argue cutting the official cash rate is actually detrimental to the economy. Australian households are burdened with some of the highest levels of household debt in the world. Conventional monetary policy wisdom is that cutting interest rates should spur more spending by both households and businesses, but this is looking less likely with each rate cut as Australia joins in the race to the bottom. Most banks don8217t automatically pass on rate cuts with a lower repayment amount unless asked. With an uncertain outlook for jobs and growth, many households are opting to maintain repayments at previous rates. On the other hand, savers, such as retirees are forced to cut back spending. Poor deposit rates are forcing savers to leverage into equities and property bubbles in the pursuit of perceived higher yields. The latest GDP numbers indicate business investment is contracting sharply. Private sector capital expenditure on buildings, equipment, plant and machinery fell 5.2 per cent in the March quarter, contributing to a 15.4 per cent annual decline. While mining investment plunged a foreseeable 12 per cent in the quarter, the manufacturing sector, currently experiencing soft demand simply didn8217t have the confidence to invest in capital expenditure, also fell 10 per cent. Outside of mining and manufacturing, however, was a glimmer of hope with capital expenditure picking up 1.8 per cent but failed to contribute anything significant. The latest CPI figures show a deflationary 0.2 per cent fall in consumer prices over the quarter including a 8220shock8221 0.2 per cent decline in Food and non-alcoholic beverages. A statement on the monetary policy decision released by the reserve bank suggested the decision to lower the cash rate last month 8220follows information showing inflationary pressures are lower than expected.8221 (8216 Australia joins club deflation, cuts cash rate. 8216) Further cuts are expected in the coming months as the Reserve bank endeavors to combat falling inflation. It would be reasonable to expect, cutting interest rates in today8217s abnormally low cash rate will only reduce consumption, fuel housing and stock bubbles and increase debilitating household leverage. It8217s not hard to fathom how the Reserve Bank will lose control of the economy, if it hasn8217t already, resulting in the 8220dramatic and destabilising8221 demise of the Australian economy. Excessively high household leverage and monetary policy mistakes will not be the only contributor. Property developers and banks prepare for onset of apartment crash In order to justify bubble prices, property spruikers had repeatedly shouted their call to action, Australia has a chronic shortage of homes. But like so many bubbles that have burst before, Australia now faces a growing oversupply. Australia8217s property frenzy and the fear of missing out has seen an unprecedented surge of apartment building along the east coast. It has now developed into an alarming supply overhang resulting with prices slumping. According to the Australian Financial Review apartments in Melbourne8217s Docklands, Southbank and the CBD are reselling for up to 24 per cent less than their off the plan purchase price. A WBP Property Group Survey of 1,794 of-the-plan apartment purchases in Victoria from December 2009 to August 2015 found the average resale loss was 9.4 per cent. The decline in apartment prices as oversupply balloons has seen banks tighten lending for apartment purchases. Macquarie bank now requires a 30 per cent deposit to purchase apartments in at-risk postcodes. Lender Firstmac also requires a 30 per cent deposit, but has excluded rental income from serviceability tests due to the sheer number of empty rental apartments. Non-resident lending has been suspended for high density apartments, something Firstmac categorises as over 6 floors. Insolvency specialists, PPB advisory are warning apartment developers to be prudent toward settlement risk. 8220They need to ask themselves some simple questions about the purchaser can I locate them, where do they live, what is their capacity to settle, are they a cash buyer or will they be seeking finance, who is their financier8221 8220A complete due diligence of their purchasers will assist developers to mitigate settlement risk in the residential developments nearing completion.8221 5 billion worth of residential developments got suspended in the week ending 27th May, according to the Australian Financial Review , Another Australian Financial Review article suggests half of Sydney8217s suburbs face a housing oversupply. ( Half of Sydney suburbs face housing oversupply buyers agent ) Despite signs of cooling (pre RBA rate cut), the OECD recommends 8220close vigilance on housing-market developments is still required.8221 Written by admin on May 10, 2016 8211 5:00 am All four of Australia8217s big banks have tightened lending for foreign buyers over the past months, some blaming increased regulatory requirements. Under the Basel III banking reforms, banks will face higher capital requirements on loans reliant on foreign income. Highly elevated house prices and paltry rents in Australia means rental income is often insufficient to service the loan. Hence, banks require extra income to service the loan and obtaining this top-up income from foreign sources can pose additional risks in an increasingly challenging economic environment. Martin North from Digital Finance Analytics adds, In addition, if house prices were to slide, overseas investors might be more willing to cut and run, and we also know that some investors from China are finding it harder to get funds out of the country. A recent distressed property report from SQM Research found there are some 27,000 8220distressed8221 properties for sale in Australia. The most concentrated area for distressed properties is the Gold Coast, Queensland, where banks are being forced to sell homes after being unable to contact the borrower. The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) no longer provides loans to self employed applicants who use foreign income to service the loan. Temporary residents must now earn their income within Australia and be paid in Australian dollars. They can only obtain a loan with a maximum loan-value ratio (LVR) of 70 per cent, down from 80 per cent. Westpac, including St George Bank, Bank of Melbourne and BankSA have ceased lending to non-residents, temporary visa holders and borrowers using foreign, self-employed income to service loans. It has also reduced the LVR for loans serviced with foreign income to 70 per cent, down from 80 per cent. NAB reduced its maximum LVR from 80 per cent down to 70 per cent for foreign applicants, but continues to lend on a case by case basis. ANZ will no longer accept loans serviced with 100 per cent foreign income and now has a maximum LVR of 70 per cent applying to these loans. Of the big four, the ANZ has been the most transparent indicating as early last month that many foreign loans were missing critical information. Later in the month, it was reported ANZ had retracted the approval on approximately 90 loans after the parties were unable to provide supportive documentation for their sources of foreign income. It was understood at the time, some borrowers were being paid by obscure and often non-existent offshore companies. ANZ has an extensive network of retail and business banking contacts across Asia and had no record of these companies. The truth may have finally come out yesterday, when it was disclosed ANZ and Westpac banks have approved hundreds of loans supported by fraudulent foreign income documentation. The banks have blamed dodgy mortgage brokers for the fraud, reporting the cases to the regulators and police. Westpac continues to say 8220the primary driver of our decision was the changes in capital and funding requirements.8221 Written by admin on May 9, 2016 8211 5:00 am Borrowers are having to pay larger housing deposits in 2016 as lenders re-evaluate their risk appetite, according to Genworth. Genworth Mortgage Insurance Australia Limited is Australia8217s largest provider of Lenders Mortgage Insurance (LMI). LMI protects the lender when borrowers default on their home loans. According to the Chief Executive Officer, Ms Georgette Nicholas, approximately 17 per cent of new business written is to cover loans with a loan-to-valve ratio (LVR) of 90 per cent 8211 down from 29 per cent in the first quarter 2015. Due to a slowdown in new business volumes and the decline in the LVR mix, Genworth Australia8217s first quarter net profit has fallen 25 per cent to 67.3 million, compared to 89.5 million in the same quarter of 2015. In a first quarter 2016 earnings statement, Glenworth stated, 8220The overall portfolio is performing in line with expectations. Performance in NSW and Victoria remains strong, while pressure in WA and Queensland continues as those regions navigate through tough economic conditions.8221 But it is not only the banks that are re-evaluating the risks. Genworth Financial Inc8217s CEO Tom McInerney said in an interview in New York, 8220We8217ve cut back in writing in Western Australia and Queensland.8221 Genworth Financial owns 52 per cent of the Australian business after floating it in May last year. McInerney says, Genworth has become more 8220more wary8221 of Australia8217s housing market due to our ties in a macro sense to China and Commodities . Written by admin on May 7, 2016 8211 5:27 pm An unprecedented 10,200 vacant residential properties are now available for rent in Perth, according to an ABC news report published today. Perth City now has a distressing vacancy rate of 6 per cent, while the suburbs hover around an highly elevated 4 per cent, about three times the long term average. REIWA president Hayden Groves remarks, 8220It really is quite startling.8221 With every Australian aspiring to be a negatively geared multiple property landlord, and with a chronic shortage of renters, tenants are the big winners. Groves told the ABC, 8220Tenants certainly have the rental market in their favour at the moment.8221 Data from SQM affirm the challenge facing landlords as rents plunge across Perth and Western Australia. In the past twelve months, rents for houses in Perth and surrounding suburbs are down an average of 12 per cent. Units are holding up only marginally better at 11 per cent. Over three years, rents for houses have fallen 26 per cent and units 23 per cent. The data shows no signs of abating. Regional centers exposed more heavily to the mining downturn have notched up even larger falls. Northern WA including the Pilbara region has seen rents fall for houses 35.4 per cent in the past twelve months. Sale transactions down 40 percent, crash could be looming In the March 2016 quarter, Perth Real Estate agents observed a 40 per cent collapse in the number of property transactions. This has even the most bullish agents running scared, as a slowdown is normally the precursor to price falls. While Northern WA is already a couple of years into a serious property crash, Perth has been experiencing only moderate, single digit falls for a number of years. But this is expected to soon break out to double digit falls, officially designating a crash. Written by admin on January 28, 2017 8211 7:37 pm China8217s most recent capital controls, introduced on the 1st of January, are having an immediate effect, with fewer Chinese buyers able to purchase property abroad. From London to Melbourne, Vancouver to Sydney, Chinese citizens are struggling to close property transactions in some of the world8217s largest property bubbles. International experts believe the drop in demand is expected to be worst felt in Australia, the biggest beneficiary of the capital outflow. According to Christopher Todd at consultancy firm Basis Point, Australia approved A24 billion of real estate investments from China in the financial year ended June 2015, the latest figures available, making Australia by far the largest destination for Chinese buyers. China8217s currency has plunged to eight year lows on the back of a record braking capital flight. Its foreign exchange reserves has been slashed to 3.052 trillion, the lowest in almost 6 years. To help stem the tide, China further tightened controls on foreign exchange, a day prior to quotas resetting on the 1st of January. In a statement from China8217s State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), it said it wanted to stamp out money laundering and illegal overseas property purchases. While the regulator has left the quota of 50,000 yuan (A9,600) foreign currency, per person, per year unchanged, it has significantly increased disclosure requirements. Chinese citizens must now pledge the money wont be used for overseas purchases of property, securities or life insurance. They must also give detailed accounts of what the money will be used for. Banks will now report any overseas transaction made by an individual exceeding 10,000 yuan (A2,000). Bloomberg reports on the despair: If its too difficult, Im out, said Mr. Zheng, 66, a retired civil servant in Shanghai who declined to give his first name to avoid attracting regulatory scrutiny. He may abandon a 2.4 million yuan (348,903) home purchase in western Melbourne, even after shelling out a 300,000 yuan deposit last August. Hes due to make another big payment next month. For Zheng, the decision on whether to walk away from his Melbourne property or risk breaking Chinas foreign-exchange rules is fast approaching. Hes scheduled to wire another 800,000 yuan to Australia in late February to cover the rest of his down payment. With the Lunar New Year starting today, an army of Chinese holiday makers are in the air heading for Melbourne and Sydney as local property agents prepare for the 8220golden week8221. The agents are already witnessing a substantial drop off in demand. Many Chinese view property with a tour group, but only half the number of buses are filled this year. Ray White Balwyn director Helen Yan told the Domain, fewer Chinese tourists would be hunting for property this year. A positive to come from all of this 8211 they will have more time to enjoy a real holiday in Australia. Happy Chinese New Year. Written by admin on January 17, 2017 8211 7:15 pm Credit rating agency Fitch has placed Australia8217s banks on a negative credit watch, citing an increase in macro-economic risks stemming from the property asset bubble. Fitch indicated a key risk for the banking system was the banks8217 exposure to the overheated property market. Of special concerned is strong increases in household debt levels relative to household disposal income 8211 at a time when Australia8217s household debt relative to household disposal income sits at a staggering 187 per cent, one of the highest levels in the world. Household debt is high and rising relative to disposable incomes, making borrowers sensitive to changes in the labour market and interest rates, Fitch analyst Andrea Jaehne stated. Pressure from multiple fronts has forced Australian banks to hike interest rates in recent months following upward trends around the globe. But with significant levels of household debt, Australian households are going to feel the brunt of the rate hikes, more so than other countries with much more prudent household debt levels. Fitch also expresses concern about growing job losses. Abnormally high housing costs has forced wages sky high in Australia, making the country a high cost economy and one struggling to compete in a global free market. This has caused the closure of complete industries and accelerated the offshoring of an increasing number of jobs, the very jobs required to service the high levels of household indebtedness. Essentially, Australia has a significant misallocation of capital towards unproductive markets such as housing, and at great expense to productive sectors of the economy. Investor loans surge 21.4 per cent Adding to macro-economic concerns is today8217s release of housing finance commitments from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Despite efforts by regulators to curb lending growth through macro-prudential controls, the value of loans to property investors surged 21.4 per cent over the year. It8217s more mounting evidence just how ill-equipped Australian regulators are in engineering a controlled, safe landing. Written by admin on December 17, 2016 8211 7:35 pm If there is one person that knows the severity of the Australian housing bubble and the repercussions for our banking system, it is ex Commonwealth Bank CEO David Murray. Murray more recently headed up the the government8217s Financial System Inquiry . In an interview broadcast on Sky News earlier this month, Murray said the Australian economy was 8220vulnerable because there is a bubble in the housing market8221 But not just any bubble. Many of the signs are the same as the Dutch Tulips, .. there are peoples behavior, peoples defensiveness about any correction in that market 8211 all those signs are there.8221 The 1637 Dutch Tulip bubble was one of the greatest bubbles in history. 8220But when those risks are there, something needs to be done about it in a regulatory sense, and the Reserve Bank and APRA need to stay on it, he recommended. He is not alone. More needs to be done In a rare move, IMF deputy managing director Tao Zhang visited Australia earlier this month to speak with regulators on the risk posed to Australia8217s economy. Mr Zhang told the Australian Financial Review, 8220both sides agreed that further measures were needed to strengthen resilience to housing market shocks8221. 8220We8217re talking about prudential policies needing to be intensified, with targeted macro-prudential measures and banks being encouraged to robustly increase their capital position into unquestionably strong territory,8221 he added. No recommendations from Coalition inquiry on housing affordability But, in an embarrassment to the government, a two year inquiry into housing affordability by the Coalition has failed to make even a single recommendation. The report, released on Friday has been, and quite rightly, branded a waste of time and money by commentators. But reading between the lines, it would now appear the Government considers the housing bubble so big and top heavy, they are unable to make any changes, without triggering a devastating correction and creating considerable political carnage to their parties brand. Best to leave that to the regulators. After all, APRA never saw the collapse of HIH Insurance coming 8211 the largest corporate failure in Australia8217s history. Written by admin on November 27, 2016 8211 8:56 pm Australia8217s property investors and debt slaves were in shock on Friday, when Westpac joined the ranks of smaller banks, significantly hiking mortgage rates out of cycle, on its fixed term loans. Westpac8217s five year fixed investment loan will jump 60 basis points or 2.4 times the standard Reserve Bank increase to 4.79 per cent come Monday. Two and three year investment loans will rise 30 basis points, while two and three year owner occupier mortgages will increase 24 basis points. It follows earlier rises by Westpac8217s RAMS and a 60 basis point rise from the Bank of Sydney. Over the past fortnight, another ten smaller banks had increased rates. Investors were too naive and complacent to see it coming, but they should have. Banks are facing pressure on a number of fronts. IRB Risk Weights As we have reported over the years, Australia8217s big banks or IRB (internal ratings-based) banks 8211 Westpac, Commonwealth, ANZ, NAB and Macquarie, have been abusing their size and status. As silly as it sounds, regulators thought these banks knew what they were doing, so they were given the power to risk rate their own mortgage books. As you can guess, in a bid to enhance profitability at the detriment of financial stability, the IRB banks rated the risks on their mortgage portfolios so dangerously low so as to not have to hold as much expensive loss absorbing capital. After all, the taxpayer would be at hand if they needed to be bailed out. A stress test conducted by the Australian banking regulator in 2014 found that the five IRB banks were insolvent, if they were unable to access further capital, after a moderate housing and commodities crash. Something had to be done. Effective 1st July 2016, APRA has raised the average risk weights for the IRB banks to a minimum of 25 per cent. This will require the IRB banks to hold extra loss absorbing capital to assist with solvency in a banking crisis. The banks have two options, reduce the level of profitability, or hit up mortgage holders. The later is preferable, as at some stage the banks may have to 8211 go cap in hand 8211 to shareholders to shore up balance sheets when default rates materially rise. 8220Regulated banks8221 i. e. all our other banks, have a minimum risk rate of 35 per cent, so the big banks are still unfairly advantaged. Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR) As part of the International Basel III accord designed to make banks more resilient, banks will have to start relying more on domestic deposits for funding, rather than the risky overseas wholesale markets. A global shock (brexit, Italy, Europe, China etc) could cause liquidity problems for rolling over short term debt. As Australia8217s household debt rapidly grew, Australian banks relied more heavily on short term wholesale debt markets to get the much needed cheap funding to satisfy Australia8217s craving for perpetual debt. Australia set to lose AAA credit rating As we reported in July, Australia is on a credit rating outlook of negative with ratings agency Standard and Poor. S038P, at the time, said There is a one-in-three chance that we could lower the rating within the next two years if we believe that parliament is unlikely to legislate savings or revenue measures sufficient for the general government sector budget deficit to narrow materially and to be in a balanced position by the early 2020s.8221 Since the warning, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Treasurer Scott Morrison has more or less sat on their hands when it comes to budget repair. Only this week, former RBA board member John Edwards has suggested cutting negative gearing subsides to secure our AAA credit rating, but the Prime Minister has ruled out the change to prevent any backlash from Liberal backbenches who heavily depend on the negative gearing gravy train. The problem facing the soft Prime Minister, is he can8217t find any cuts that won8217t effect someone. Today, even former coalition Prime Minister, Tony Abbott has called on Turnbull to harden up Australia8217s over extended and risky banks are seen only as safe as a government bailout, and hence cannot have a credit rating that exceeds the government. The loss of the government credit rating is expected to make any overseas wholesale funding more expensive. The Trump Effect A future with Donald Trump, leader of the free world, is the hardest to predict, but has attracted most of the blame for rising interest rates. Trump policy is largely expected to be inflationary with pro-growth, large infrastructure builds in the wings. His election win earlier this month has caused pandemonium in world debt markets, but there is some evidence to suggest bonds have been out of favor since August. Whether the bond market sell-off started in August, or November with the election of Trump, bond yields are heading in one direction, up, and is considered a good proxy for future interest rate moves. Janet Yellen, United States Federal Reserve chair, is expected to move on American interest rates in December. Should we panic Australia8217s banking regulator has repeatedly maintained banks should have a serviceability floor of 7 per cent for when interest rates inevitably go up. Provided banks didn8217t flout this requirement, there should be some scope for rising interest rates over the next 12 to 24 months. But then, who is confident the banks screened mortgage applicants with a 7 per cent floor Certainly not me. Written by admin on October 24, 2016 8211 9:15 pm Australia is facing an unprecedented apartment oversupply as an estimated 230,000 new apartments flood the Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane markets over the next 24 months. The surge in new apartment building was in an attempt to satisfy the insatiable demand from the foreign Chinese property investor. Under an Australian law designed to increase housing stock, foreign investors can only purchase new dwellings. But as we reported in May (8220 Banks tighten screws on foreign buyers 8220 ) the banks were uncovering traces of what would turn out to be systemic fraud. The ANZ bank asked its Asian subsidiaries to verify and cross check the obscure offshore companies being cited as sources of foreign income to service these property loans. Most offshore companies didn8217t exist. By the end of April, the ANZ was forced to retract the approval on 90 loans to foreign investors. Not long after, the truth came out with the disclosure that ANZ and Westpac banks have approved hundreds of loans supported by fraudulent foreign income documentation. All the banks immediately began to toughen eligibility and serviceability requirements. Some even chose to freeze the writing of all new loans to foreigners, citing the risk was just too great. Many foreigners had put down deposits on their apartments but were no longer eligible for the loans from Australia8217s big banks, loans essential to complete settlement. To help mitigate disaster, Chinese real estate portal, aofun. au has set up a Nominee Sale Platform in a bid to shift some of the thousands of apartments where buyers are unable to complete settlement. Foreign property investors locked out of apartment re-sales But in an ironic twist, the foreign property investor has been locked out of the re-sale market and unable to snag a bargain. According to a spokesperson from the Australian Taxation Office, Under subsections 15(4) and (5) of the Foreign Acquisitions and Takeovers Act 1975, a dwelling is considered to be sold when an agreement becomes binding,8221 8220If the property is onsold after the date upon which the contract becomes binding, and prior to settlement, then this is considered to be an established dwelling.8221 As foreign investors cannot purchase what is now deemed an established dwelling, they are unable to help soak up some of the burdening oversupply. Agents target the first home buyer Not to be defeated, apartment sales agents are now targeting the first home buyer. Aofun even claims 8220Australian FIRST HOME BUYERS can pick up a bargain with the deposit already paid for8221 But can they soak up 230,000 apartments in 24 months Earlier this month, the Australia Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revised down first home buyer participation in the market skewed towards the speculative investor. Original figures suggested a low of just 14.1 per cent of buyers in July 2016 were first home buyers, but actual figures are much worst. After revision, the ABS now believe just 13.2 per cent of participants in the market in July were first home buyers. Numbers had been steadily falling for four years. High housing costs have been zapping disposable incomes, shutting down business and leading to higher unemployment and the casualisation of the workforce. Coupled with run away house prices, first home buyers, the one who have jobs, are struggling to get into the housing market 8211 regardless of if their staple diet includes smashed avocado with crumbled feta on five-grain toasted bread. With trouble brewing in the apartment market, the banks are further cracking down on lending. On Saturday, the National Australia Bank (NAB) expanded its confidential lending blacklist to cover over 600 towns and suburbs. Buyers now need a minimum 30 per cent deposit to purchase property in these suburbs exposed to the mining downturn or apartment oversupply. Today, Bendigo and Adelaide bank cracked down on high risk locations increasing the minimum deposit to 40 per cent. If first home buyers were struggling to save a twenty per cent deposit, they will face even more difficulty to cough up a thirty to forty per cent deposit for a high risk apartment. But it8217s also a mistake to assume all Generation Y and X endeavor to enter Australia8217s housing bubble and become lifetime debt slaves. So the question stands, just who will purchase all the apartment defaults Written by admin on October 20, 2016 8211 6:44 pm Australia8217s unprecedented housing bubble has forced a significant number of mortgage applicants to falsify loan applications, simply to get a foothold in the ever challenging market. A recent UBS survey found mortgage fraud in Australia was rife, with 28 per cent of applicants admitting to falsifying loan documents. Many had either overstated household income, overstated asset values or understated debt or living expenses. Borrowers barely able to break into the market were the group most likely to stretch the truth, with UBS reporting, 8220there was a correlation between borrowers who misrepresented their application and: those whose expenditure was broadly equal to their income stated they are under financial stress or have missed a debt payment.8221 AMP8217s 2016 Financial Wellness Report. released today, found 24 per cent of workers in Australia are now classified as 8220financially stressed.8221 UBS indicated its survey was likely to understate the number of falsified mortgages and suggested mortgage fraud was 8220systemic8221 in Australia, and especially prevalent among brokers. Wayne Byres, Chairman of the Australian Banking Regulator, APRA, has told the Senate Economics Legislation Committee, the watchdog has instructed Australia8217s largest banks to have their external auditors conduct a review on their fraud control procedures. Byres told the committee, We have told the larger institutions that well be asking them to have their external auditors do a review of what are essentially fraud control mechanisms to ensure that there are mechanisms in place andare working, With such systemic fraud, there are fears a return to more prudent lending could send Australia8217s overextended housing market into a downwards spiral. Earlier this month, Roy Morgan Research found 311,000 mortgage holders in Australia had little or no equity in their home. A cooling of the market would plunge hundreds of thousands of mortgage holders into negative equity. Written by admin on October 19, 2016 8211 6:06 pm It8217s not just those struggling to break into the property market that need to cut back on smashed avocado with crumbled feta on five-grain toasted bread . Interest rates might be at record lows, but delinquency rates have hit record highs in Western Australia, Tasmania and the Northern Territory. In South Australia, delinquency rates are just 0.1 per cent shy of the record. The housing bust in Western Australia and wage deflation has contributed to mortgage arrears hitting 2.33 per cent, surging 0.69 per cent in the past year. Nationally, delinquencies have risen in every state and territory. The number of delinquent mortgages in Australia is at three year highs and is likely to rise further, according to Moodys Investors Service. Mortgage holders more than 30 days late on their mortgage currently stands at 1.5 per cent, and is nudging towards the 1.59 per cent record recorded in April 2013. Australians have the highest level of household debt in the world. Written by admin on September 15, 2016 8211 7:59 pm Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has called on Australians to be prudent towards excess household debt, saying interest rates will not always remain low. Its not for me to give lectures on household finance but I think most Australians are very alert to the fact that while interest rates are low they havent always been low and that youve got to be prudent in terms of your borrowing, he told the West Australian Newspaper. Its up to the Reserve Bank to maintain financial stability, and they have a number of levers, interest rates being the most obvious one, to address excessive borrowing if thats the right term. In the March quarter, household debt as a percentage of household income continued to climb to 187 per cent on the back of emergency low interest rates. Australians carry the highest level of household debt of anyone in the world. This burdening and record high household debt level has caused Moodys Investors Service issue a recent warning that Australian banks will be in uncharted territory when the nations households have to contend with an economic downturn. The resilience of household balance sheets and, consequently, bank portfolios, to a serious economic downturn has not been tested at these levels of private sector indebtedness, Ilya Serov, senior vice-president at Moodys Financial Institutions said. Written by admin on August 13, 2016 8211 8:21 pm Foreign investors in Australian real-estate will need to conduct their own sound due diligence after it has been revealed one of the countries leading house price indices has been overstating growth. But it is not the only problem they face. Australia8217s central bank has been forced to drop using a home price index from CoreLogic after the bank said it is 8220overstating8221 house price growth. In a country obsessed with real estate, everyone used CoreLogic statistics as it always portrayed strong, perpetual growth regardless of actual market performance. The last monthly update, published on the 1st August found Adelaide dwellings surged a stunning 1.4 percent in the month of July. Sydney was up a hot 1.3 per cent and Melbourne 1.1 per cent. Corelogic boasted, 8220Capital city dwelling values reach a record high in July8221 As of the 31st of July according to Corelogic, Sydney8217s median dwelling price was 775,000 down from 780,000 the month earlier (yes down), Melbourne was 585,000 down from 587,500 a month earlier (yes down) and Adelaide was 417,500 down from 420,000 (no, no mistake 8211 down). This on its own is not a concern. The Corelogic Home Value index is a Hedonic index meaning the data is 8220massaged8221 to better track attributes of the property 8211 i. e. the number of bedrooms and bathrooms. But it had become a regular occurrence this year. Month after month, median down, index up. Sydney started the year with a median 800,000 dwelling price and closed last month at 775,000 according to Corelogic. Despite the fall, Sydney has recorded impressive monthly growth, 0.5 per cent (Jan), 0.5 per cent (Feb), 1.0 per cent (Mar), 2.4 per cent (Apr), 3.1 per cent (May), 1.2 per cent (Jun), 1.3 per cent (Jul). It is understood Corelogic made a 8220methodological change8221 in April and forgot to advise customers of the changes, including the Reserve Bank of Australia. If you have been in Sydney, Melbourne or Brisbane of late, no doubt you would have witnessed the sight of endless cranes. Australia is in the grips of an unprecedented apartment building boom. In the March quarter, according to the ABS, the private sector was building 150,706 8220other8221 residential dwellings, typically units and apartments. This is triple the roughly 50,000 only 6 years ago. Most of these dwellings are off-the-plan and are being built for foreigners. Investors put down, typically, a 10 per cent deposit and is required to pay the remainder when the apartment is complete. This could involve obtaining a loan with a bank when the time comes. 8220All the deals have been frozen8221 As we reported in May ( Banks tighten screws on foreign buyers ), Australia8217s Big 4 had started retracting and clamping down on loans to foreign investors after detecting widespread fraud. According to overseas mortgage brokers, many are now struggling to complete their purchases. Mark Yin, an agent with Shanghai-based Home Tree Group told the AFR, 8220All the deals have been frozen,8221 According to the report, nearly 100 per cent of his clients were unable to get finance from Australian banks. Most were buying apartments in the Melbourne CBD. 8220I have now stopped dealing in Australian property,8221 he said. Lanny Xu, CEO of Iron Fish China said about 20 per cent of her clients were trying to on sell apartments after failing to obtain loans. For local buyers, the oversupply of apartments have seen prices fall. Banks are valuing the apartment at settlement and many are coming up short. In Melbourne8217s Docklands, CBD and Southbank, apartments are selling at up to 24 per cent discounts to the off-the-plan price. According to a recent article in the AFR, off the plan apartment sales in Brisbane8217s inner city is down 44 per cent in the last quarter. ( Brisbane apartment sales collapse, settlements now key focus for developers ) Written by admin on July 7, 2016 8211 8:57 pm Years of spending beyond our means has caught up with Australia today, with ratings agency Standard and Poor8217s lowering Australia8217s credit rating outlook to negative. While Australia retains its prized AAA credit rating for now, it is a strong warning Australia could lose its coveted credit rating if our budget position fails to improve. In a statement, Standards and Poor8217s said, 8220There is a one-in-three chance that we could lower the rating within the next two years if we believe that parliament is unlikely to legislate savings or revenue measures sufficient for the general government sector budget deficit to narrow materially and to be in a balanced position by the early 2020s.8221 One such improvement could be the grandfathering of negative gearing and the reduction of the capital gains discount from 50 per cent to 25 per cent, forecast to save tax-payers over 6 billion a year. Standard and Poor8217s later today placed NSW, Victoria and the ACT on a negative outlook indicating 8220no state entity can receive a higher rating than the Commonwealth of Australia.8221 Subsequently, for similar reasons our big four banks 8211 ANZ, CBA, WBC and NAB were placed on a negative outlook. S038P remarked, 8220The negative outlooks on these banks reflect our view that the ratings benefit from government support and that we would expect to downgrade these entities if we lower the long-term local currency sovereign credit rating on Australia8221 S038P described government debt as low, but indicated its biggest concern is Australia8217s 8220high external and household indebtedness8221. 8220A portion of Australia8217s external debt has also funded a surge in unproductive household borrowing for housing during the 1990s and 2000s.8221 Australia has the highest level of household debt as a percentage of GDP in the world. Approximately 30 per cent of bank funding comes from external wholesale markets, exposing Australia to external shocks. Ireland was in a similar situation pre GFC with low government debt and significantly high household debt. When the Irish people could no longer service their mounting debts, the banking system buckled, the government was forced to bail out them out, effectively shifting the household debt onto the balance sheet of the government. Written by admin on July 3, 2016 8211 9:00 pm Australia8217s trek to the polls on Saturday has resulted in a nail biting, too close to call result. At the conclusion of counting at 2am Sunday morning, the ALP had 67 seats, LNP 8211 65 and the minor parties have picked up five. 13 seats remain in doubt with counting to resume on Tuesday. The results suggest Australia could be heading for a hung parliament and three years of political deadlock for economic reform and attempts to rein in spending. Such a deadlock could spell the end of Australia8217s coveted AAA credit rating with speculation Australia could be put on credit watch negative within weeks. The consequent loss of the triple AAA credit rating will not only make government debt more expensive, but it will result in a spate of downgrades for Australian banks and companies and potentially result in the rise of mortgage rates due to banks over reliance of wholesale funding. The downgrade will also be a blow to confidence. Australia8217s total debt surges to 254 per cent of GDP The loss of our AAA credit rating was going to eventually happen, regardless of the outcome of the election. There has been speculation looming about the loss for months. An Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) release last Thursday tallied another record high for Australian debt levels. Total debt racked up by households, the public sector and business (but excluding finance companies) totaled 254 per cent of GDP for the first quarter to March. Households8217 insatiable appetite for a slice of the Australian housing bubble, and at any cost, made the largest contribution to total debt levels at 125 per cent of GDP. Australian households remain the most indebted in the world as a percentage of GDP. A significant risk is our big banks8217 reliance on overseas wholesale funding to support the residential mortgage market. As the world increasingly questions the Australian miracle and recalculates risk, the spreads of this wholesale funding will increase. According to the Courier Mail, analyst, John Steiner from United States based Hedgeye Risk Management has recommended investors short Australia8217s big four banks. He believes the housing oversupply and falling demand has signaled Australia8217s housing market is in a bubble and is about to blow. Business debt now sits at 84 per cent of GDP, while Government debt ticks up to 47 per cent of GDP. Earlier this year when total debt was only 243 per cent of GDP, Morgan Stanley calculated for every dollar of extra GDP growth, Australia accumulated an extra 9 worth of debt. At the time, Daniel Blake, a Sydney based economist for Morgan Stanley said Australia needs to urgently find other sources of growth that are less debt-intensive rather than the hugely leveraged property market. 8220We8217re not getting that much growth for the money we8217re borrowing,8221 Written by admin on June 28, 2016 8211 8:06 pm Negative gearing was intended to create more affordable housing, but as house prices surge, causing rental yields to tumble, more evidence is mounting to the contrary. Research by UNSW8217s City Futures Research Centre has found a higher concentration of vacant homes in the inner cities. When it investigated further, it found a strong correlation between empty homes and poor rental yields. Inner city dwellings typically attract higher prices but return lower yields due to a ceiling on incomes. They have, in the past, exhibited better capital growth prospects. Apartments with a rental yield of approximately two percent were 2.5 times more likely to be intentionally left empty compared with apartments yielding 6 per cent. Since 1997, price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios have close to doubled. As home prices continued to outpace rental growth, rental yields fell to the point where for many investors it is no longer worth offering the home for rent. There is less hassle with tenants, limited maintenance requests and no wear and tear on the property. Rather, the focus is now firmly on capital growth and as a result, some 90,000 properties sit idle in Sydney, a trend that is set to continue. In Melbourne, 83,000 properties, representing 4.8 per cent of the market is considered empty based on water meter readings. UNSW8217s Professor Bill Randolph and Dr Laurence Troy state, 8220Leaving housing empty is both profitable and subsidised by government,8221 8220This is taxation lunacy and a national scandal.8221 Tax distortions such as negative gearing and the fifty per cent capital gains discount is believed to be behind this ill-considered trend. Leaving property empty allows investors greater negative gearing offsets while capital gains is treated more favorably with a fifty per cent tax discount. High housing costs are making Australia noncompetitive in global markets and channeling vital capital from what was productive sectors of the Australian economy into non-productive housing. If we are fair dinkum about jobs and growth, structural changes are urgently needed around taxation policy driving these distortions. Pain will be felt in the short term, but the long term benefits will exceedingly outweigh the negatives should politicians have the vision to see past one term. Flawed housing policy has resulted in Australia having some of the highest levels of household debt in the world, relative to both GDP and household disposable incomes. Such, precarious and unsustainable levels greatly exposes Australia to external economic shocks such as the Brexit. Australian banks rely heavily on foreign wholesale debt markets to fund many residential property loans and a global liquidity crisis could cause quite a road bump. Tax distortions are also establishing the scene for one day, when house prices are unable to achieve anymore growth and the yields simply won8217t stack up. Written by admin on June 25, 2016 8211 9:39 pm Western Australia8217s highest residential vacancy rate in decades has turned the state into a hot spot heaven for squatters. Squatters are finding home in some of the tens of thousand vacant properties sitting idle in WA. Some are changing the locks and threatening landlords. Others are conducting their own renovations and painting walls. Sharon Fox-Slater, executive general manager of EBM RentCover, one of Australia8217s largest providers of landlord insurance said that she use to see a squatting related claim every few years, but they are now common place in Western Australia. 8220The downturn, high vacancy rate and number of job losses is taking its toll. she said. Written by admin on June 24, 2016 8211 9:38 pm Australia8217s banking regulator has expressed perpetual concern8221 about the dominance of Australia8217s big four banks in the lending market. Charles Littrell, Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) supervision general manager told a Centre for International Finance and Regulation showcase event on Thursday, 8220In 1990, the four major banks had 40 per cent of the banking market now theyve got 80 per cent8221 Theyre all in the same business model, theyre all hugely exposed to each other 8230 and we dont quite know what would happen if that business model gets whacked by external stress all at once.8221 The warning is timely given Britain8217s decision to exit the EU today, shaking global finance markets. Also of concern by the regulator is the big four8217s exposure to residential housing loans. 8220It is a significant issue of concern to us that close to two-thirds of balance sheets are exposed to propertymainly housing loans,8221 Australia has the highest level of household debt in the world. It is expected the regulator will impose greater capital requirements in the next wave of reforms due by the end of the year. In 2012, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) highlighted identical concerns about the concentration and interconnectedness of Australias big four banks. (8216 Too big to fail 8216). Under a stress test scenario conducted by APRA in 2014, the big four banks would have been insolvent if they were unable to access further capital, highlighting the need to bolster the banks with further capital. (8216 Have the Big 4 just flunked APRAs stress test 8216) Written by admin on June 19, 2016 8211 6:43 pm A Treasury report released under Freedom of Information has found over half of all negative gearing tax benefits aid our top twenty percent of income earners and the top ten percent of income earners gain 75 percent of the capital gains tax concessions. Despite claims by the coalition that Mums 038 Dads and average wage earners were the main beneficiary, the report states 8220Negative gearing benefits high-income families,8221 and the capital gains discount 8220overwhelmingly benefits high-income families.8221 The lowest twenty percent of income earners only obtain 5 per cent of all benefits under the generous negative gearing scheme, costing the budget billions of dollars each year. It is understood the report is written by ANU8217s associate professor, Ben Phillips for Treasury, and the government had known about the contents of the report for three months, while fiercely maintaining it8217s claim that negative gearing benefits average wage earners. The report, which the coalition tried to keep secret, found Labor8217s plan to quarantine negative gearing to new properties and reduce the capital gains discount from 50 per cent to 25 per cent would save the Australian taxpayer approximately 6 billion a year. Written by admin on June 8, 2016 8211 9:27 pm Moody8217s Investors Service has warned today, the recent resurgence in house price growth following last month8217s rate cut would been seen as a credit negative for Australian banks. The surge, 8220against a back drop of an already-high level of household indebtedness8221 would increase the sensitivity of Australian banks to a housing downturn. The report stated, And although we expect such an adjustment to be gradual, the likelihood of an outright downward correction in prices is rising. Written by admin on June 5, 2016 8211 8:16 pm 8220Domestically, the unwinding of housing-market tensions to date may presage dramatic and destabilising developments, rather than herald a soft landing.8221 This is the latest warning from the OECD Economic Outlook and comes after the Reserve Bank of Australia stoked the hot coals last month, slashing the official cash rate by 25 basis points and sending Sydney8217s property prices surging 3.1 per cent in the month of May. It highlights the enormous challenge the Reserve Bank faces in trying to support an ailing economy while engineering a soft landing in Australia8217s unprecedented housing bubble. No central bank has ever pulled off such a feat 8211 anywhere in the world. Some economists argue cutting the official cash rate is actually detrimental to the economy. Australian households are burdened with some of the highest levels of household debt in the world. Conventional monetary policy wisdom is that cutting interest rates should spur more spending by both households and businesses, but this is looking less likely with each rate cut as Australia joins in the race to the bottom. Most banks don8217t automatically pass on rate cuts with a lower repayment amount unless asked. With an uncertain outlook for jobs and growth, many households are opting to maintain repayments at previous rates. On the other hand, savers, such as retirees are forced to cut back spending. Poor deposit rates are forcing savers to leverage into equities and property bubbles in the pursuit of perceived higher yields. The latest GDP numbers indicate business investment is contracting sharply. Private sector capital expenditure on buildings, equipment, plant and machinery fell 5.2 per cent in the March quarter, contributing to a 15.4 per cent annual decline. While mining investment plunged a foreseeable 12 per cent in the quarter, the manufacturing sector, currently experiencing soft demand simply didn8217t have the confidence to invest in capital expenditure, also fell 10 per cent. Outside of mining and manufacturing, however, was a glimmer of hope with capital expenditure picking up 1.8 per cent but failed to contribute anything significant. The latest CPI figures show a deflationary 0.2 per cent fall in consumer prices over the quarter including a 8220shock8221 0.2 per cent decline in Food and non-alcoholic beverages. A statement on the monetary policy decision released by the reserve bank suggested the decision to lower the cash rate last month 8220follows information showing inflationary pressures are lower than expected.8221 (8216 Australia joins club deflation, cuts cash rate. 8216) Further cuts are expected in the coming months as the Reserve bank endeavors to combat falling inflation. It would be reasonable to expect, cutting interest rates in today8217s abnormally low cash rate will only reduce consumption, fuel housing and stock bubbles and increase debilitating household leverage. It8217s not hard to fathom how the Reserve Bank will lose control of the economy, if it hasn8217t already, resulting in the 8220dramatic and destabilising8221 demise of the Australian economy. Excessively high household leverage and monetary policy mistakes will not be the only contributor. Property developers and banks prepare for onset of apartment crash In order to justify bubble prices, property spruikers had repeatedly shouted their call to action, Australia has a chronic shortage of homes. But like so many bubbles that have burst before, Australia now faces a growing oversupply. Australia8217s property frenzy and the fear of missing out has seen an unprecedented surge of apartment building along the east coast. It has now developed into an alarming supply overhang resulting with prices slumping. According to the Australian Financial Review apartments in Melbourne8217s Docklands, Southbank and the CBD are reselling for up to 24 per cent less than their off the plan purchase price. A WBP Property Group Survey of 1,794 of-the-plan apartment purchases in Victoria from December 2009 to August 2015 found the average resale loss was 9.4 per cent. The decline in apartment prices as oversupply balloons has seen banks tighten lending for apartment purchases. Macquarie bank now requires a 30 per cent deposit to purchase apartments in at-risk postcodes. Lender Firstmac also requires a 30 per cent deposit, but has excluded rental income from serviceability tests due to the sheer number of empty rental apartments. Non-resident lending has been suspended for high density apartments, something Firstmac categorises as over 6 floors. Insolvency specialists, PPB advisory are warning apartment developers to be prudent toward settlement risk. 8220They need to ask themselves some simple questions about the purchaser can I locate them, where do they live, what is their capacity to settle, are they a cash buyer or will they be seeking finance, who is their financier8221 8220A complete due diligence of their purchasers will assist developers to mitigate settlement risk in the residential developments nearing completion.8221 5 billion worth of residential developments got suspended in the week ending 27th May, according to the Australian Financial Review , Another Australian Financial Review article suggests half of Sydney8217s suburbs face a housing oversupply. ( Half of Sydney suburbs face housing oversupply buyers agent ) Despite signs of cooling (pre RBA rate cut), the OECD recommends 8220close vigilance on housing-market developments is still required.8221 Written by admin on May 10, 2016 8211 5:00 am All four of Australia8217s big banks have tightened lending for foreign buyers over the past months, some blaming increased regulatory requirements. Under the Basel III banking reforms, banks will face higher capital requirements on loans reliant on foreign income. Highly elevated house prices and paltry rents in Australia means rental income is often insufficient to service the loan. Hence, banks require extra income to service the loan and obtaining this top-up income from foreign sources can pose additional risks in an increasingly challenging economic environment. Martin North from Digital Finance Analytics adds, In addition, if house prices were to slide, overseas investors might be more willing to cut and run, and we also know that some investors from China are finding it harder to get funds out of the country. A recent distressed property report from SQM Research found there are some 27,000 8220distressed8221 properties for sale in Australia. The most concentrated area for distressed properties is the Gold Coast, Queensland, where banks are being forced to sell homes after being unable to contact the borrower. The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) no longer provides loans to self employed applicants who use foreign income to service the loan. Temporary residents must now earn their income within Australia and be paid in Australian dollars. They can only obtain a loan with a maximum loan-value ratio (LVR) of 70 per cent, down from 80 per cent. Westpac, including St George Bank, Bank of Melbourne and BankSA have ceased lending to non-residents, temporary visa holders and borrowers using foreign, self-employed income to service loans. It has also reduced the LVR for loans serviced with foreign income to 70 per cent, down from 80 per cent. NAB reduced its maximum LVR from 80 per cent down to 70 per cent for foreign applicants, but continues to lend on a case by case basis. ANZ will no longer accept loans serviced with 100 per cent foreign income and now has a maximum LVR of 70 per cent applying to these loans. Of the big four, the ANZ has been the most transparent indicating as early last month that many foreign loans were missing critical information. Later in the month, it was reported ANZ had retracted the approval on approximately 90 loans after the parties were unable to provide supportive documentation for their sources of foreign income. It was understood at the time, some borrowers were being paid by obscure and often non-existent offshore companies. ANZ has an extensive network of retail and business banking contacts across Asia and had no record of these companies. The truth may have finally come out yesterday, when it was disclosed ANZ and Westpac banks have approved hundreds of loans supported by fraudulent foreign income documentation. The banks have blamed dodgy mortgage brokers for the fraud, reporting the cases to the regulators and police. Westpac continues to say 8220the primary driver of our decision was the changes in capital and funding requirements.8221 Written by admin on May 9, 2016 8211 5:00 am Borrowers are having to pay larger housing deposits in 2016 as lenders re-evaluate their risk appetite, according to Genworth. Genworth Mortgage Insurance Australia Limited is Australia8217s largest provider of Lenders Mortgage Insurance (LMI). LMI protects the lender when borrowers default on their home loans. According to the Chief Executive Officer, Ms Georgette Nicholas, approximately 17 per cent of new business written is to cover loans with a loan-to-valve ratio (LVR) of 90 per cent 8211 down from 29 per cent in the first quarter 2015. Due to a slowdown in new business volumes and the decline in the LVR mix, Genworth Australia8217s first quarter net profit has fallen 25 per cent to 67.3 million, compared to 89.5 million in the same quarter of 2015. In a first quarter 2016 earnings statement, Glenworth stated, 8220The overall portfolio is performing in line with expectations. Performance in NSW and Victoria remains strong, while pressure in WA and Queensland continues as those regions navigate through tough economic conditions.8221 But it is not only the banks that are re-evaluating the risks. Genworth Financial Inc8217s CEO Tom McInerney said in an interview in New York, 8220We8217ve cut back in writing in Western Australia and Queensland.8221 Genworth Financial owns 52 per cent of the Australian business after floating it in May last year. McInerney says, Genworth has become more 8220more wary8221 of Australia8217s housing market due to our ties in a macro sense to China and Commodities . Written by admin on May 7, 2016 8211 5:27 pm An unprecedented 10,200 vacant residential properties are now available for rent in Perth, according to an ABC news report published today. Perth City now has a distressing vacancy rate of 6 per cent, while the suburbs hover around an highly elevated 4 per cent, about three times the long term average. REIWA president Hayden Groves remarks, 8220It really is quite startling.8221 With every Australian aspiring to be a negatively geared multiple property landlord, and with a chronic shortage of renters, tenants are the big winners. Groves told the ABC, 8220Tenants certainly have the rental market in their favour at the moment.8221 Data from SQM affirm the challenge facing landlords as rents plunge across Perth and Western Australia. In the past twelve months, rents for houses in Perth and surrounding suburbs are down an average of 12 per cent. Units are holding up only marginally better at 11 per cent. Over three years, rents for houses have fallen 26 per cent and units 23 per cent. The data shows no signs of abating. Regional centers exposed more heavily to the mining downturn have notched up even larger falls. Northern WA including the Pilbara region has seen rents fall for houses 35.4 per cent in the past twelve months. Sale transactions down 40 percent, crash could be looming In the March 2016 quarter, Perth Real Estate agents observed a 40 per cent collapse in the number of property transactions. This has even the most bullish agents running scared, as a slowdown is normally the precursor to price falls. While Northern WA is already a couple of years into a serious property crash, Perth has been experiencing only moderate, single digit falls for a number of years. But this is expected to soon break out to double digit falls, officially designating a crash. Indian Techies Can039t Be Trained On New Tech Not True, Says Mohandas Pai Nifty May Hit Fresh All-Time High In Next Week, Says Ruchit Jain Expect 20 Upside In Karur Vysya Bank: Sanjiv Bhasin V-Mart Retail Sees 8-10 Same Store Sales Ahead Datamatics Global Services On Philippines Arm How The Union Budget Is Prepared Union Budget: Few Terms You Should Know 17-Year-Old Indian-Origin Entrepreneur Features In Forbes List They Made It To Forbes Ranking Of Highest Grossing Actors 2016 Indian Banker Makes It To Fortune List Of Top 50 Business Persons